Intelligence Course & Lectures – World of Intelligence

The Introduction to General Intelligence Analysis (IGIA) course was taught for over a decade at the National Intelligence University in Washington, D.C. and the National Air and Space Intelligence Center in Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. The duration of the original course is 40 classroom hours with 6 hours, per student, of outside research and preparation.

At the moment, the course and lectures are available on demand via speaking engagements and course or independent lecture inquiries. Contact us if you are interested.

Overview:

This course introduces participants to the Intelligence Community (IC), the major Intelligence disciplines, and some fundamental intelligence analytical concepts. The purpose of the course is to provide students who are newly assigned to (or will soon support) an Intelligence analytical function within the US Intelligence Community with some basic or fundamental assessment techniques. In addition, the course will address the unique missions, roles, characteristics and relationships of the 16 members that comprise the Intelligence Community, and demonstrate how each agency contributes to the evaluation process. Other segments of the course will discuss the eight components of strategic intelligence, collection management, creative and critical thinking, and issues that can skew or undercut an Intelligence assessment. Upon completion of the course, each student should have a better appreciation of his or her role as an Intelligence professional supporting the US Intelligence Community.

Lectures:

The Evolution of Intelligence

Documents on intelligence have existed for thousands of years. All civilizations of the ancient world practiced human intelligence (HUMINT) collection in one form or another, and many left behind extensive writings on the theory and practice of HUMINT. This was particularly true of the ancient Chinese and Indians, for whom HUMINT in its various forms was integral to statecraft. The civilizations of the ancient Near East and classical period in the Mediterranean also engaged in HUMINT and left behind a record of it.

The United States Intelligence Community (IC)

A brief overview on the organization of the United States Intelligence Community, its origins, its boundaries, its members, and those responsible for overseeing its activities.

The Intelligence Cycle

A discussion of process by which information is converted into Intelligence and made available to consumers for use in decision making, planning, and execution. The lecture will examine why the Intelligence cycle is an important doctrinal concept, providing a basis for common terminology, tactics, techniques and procedures.

The Components of Strategic Intelligence

A discussion of the eight components of Strategic Intelligence and their major sub- components. The presentation will stress why an Intelligence analyst must avoid a narrow focus when assessing Intelligence information, as other outside factors may impact on the interpretation of data. The lecturer will introduce examples where each of the strategic components has had international implications on Intelligence estimates.

Matrix Analysis and Link Analysis

An introduction on the use of matrix and link analysis. The instructor will show how these two analytical tools can identify key individuals, personal relationships, and people-to- event associations when analyzing an organization, group, or suspected associations.

Intelligence Oversight and Direction

An overview of executive, congressional, and Department of Defense organizations involved in the control and oversight of the Intelligence Community. The lecture will also address public oversight of Intelligence, to include the media.

The Intelligence Analyst Role in Warning

An overview covering the basic concepts of Warning analysis; and the role and responsibilities of Intelligence analysts in the Warning process. The lecture will examine the relationship between Indications and Warning (I&W), and between the warning analyst and decision- maker.

Thinking Creatively and Critically

The creative and critical thought process as it relates to an Intelligence analyst. This block will address the power and influence of paradigms, explaining why people cling to old paradigms, and suggesting reasons why analysts must anticipate new paradigms. The block will also look at the role of reason and logic in the “verification” process of reaching a conclusion. It will conclude with a brief discussion of the “Fallacies of Relevance,” and the obstacles they create in analysis.

Orders of Battle and Military Capabilities Analysis

This block will examine how and why Intelligence analysts use Orders-of- Battle when developing military assessments on a foreign country. The lecturer will address the various elements that comprise an Order of Battle, and identify what constitutes primary, secondary, and tertiary Orders-of- Battle components. The presentation will also address Military Capabilities (MILCAP), and the four pillars (Force Structure, Modernization, Readiness and Sustainability) which form the basis for most MILCAP studies. During the session, the instructor and class will discuss the various sub-elements which fall under the four pillars. The lecture will also identify the four broad divisions of activity in warfare (Military Doctrine, Military Strategy, Operational Art, and Tactics); and how they impact on MILCAP studies. This block will include an Order-of- Battle/MILCAP exercise, coupled with Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) research outside of class.

Problem Definition and the Importance of Understanding the Task

A discussion on the initial organization and planning required when addressing an analytical problem. The lecture will focus on the need to define, clearly and accurately, the question or issue at hand before starting the analytical process. The talk will also cover Action Milestones, the necessity to survey adjacent data fields for relevant information, the stages of problem definition, problem types and problem solution.

The Basic Ingredients of Intelligence Analysis

A lecture introducing the three basic building blocks of analysis: Hypotheses, Evidence, and Assumptions. The lecture will include a number of small exercises on developing hypothesis, and discuss the role of evidence, logical deductions, and assumptions in the analytical process.

An Overview of Collection Management

An overview of Collection Management and the Collection Requirements Management process. This lecture will address Collection Management systems and procedures, including the various functions performed in the process of collecting and transforming information into Intelligence.

The Intelligence Collection Disciplines (INTs)

Denial and Deception (D&D) and the Intelligence Analyst

A video presentation describing the history of Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception (CC&D) in the 20th century; and the role that technology has played in developing new CC&D techniques and defeating CC&D efforts. The film will conclude with the development of stealth technology and its impact– and cost– on military hardware now in production and development

The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

This session will introduce the class to the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), an analytical tool often used when facts and evidence appear contradictory or conflicting, and several hypotheses are possible and plausible to explain or forecast an event. The instructor will introduce the class to the structural procedures of ACH. Afterwards, the class will work on an actual problem from the Persian Gulf Tanker War of the late 1980s. The specific incident involved a projectile which hit a ship enroute to Kuwait. The class must examine the facts, develop assumptions and hypotheses, and reach an “educated guess” on what hit the ship, what was the launch platform, and what country was responsible. The instructor will divide the class into four groups of seven-to- ten people. Each group will then conduct its own analysis, and brief the class on the results. This session will require some work outside the published class schedule.

Chains of Reasoning Analysis

An introduction on the use of chains of reasoning analysis. The instructor will show how this analytical tool can help an analyst develop hypotheses, explain or anticipate events, develop assumptions, and search for evidence. The lecture will look at a hypothetical situation; and, through class participation, diagram the structure of a problem.

Evidence and Its Use

This lecture will cover how analysts evaluate various sources of Intelligence data, based on a sources ability to observe and communicate. The discussion will also cover bias, competency, physiological conditions, and motivation when assessing the credibility of information from a human source. Also, the talk will address problems with hearsay, and the difficulties sometimes posed by “testimonial” evidence. The session will conclude by looking at the value of evidence and conclusions which an analyst can draw from evidence.

Bias and Pitfalls in the Analytical Process

A review of the most common pitfalls and biases that affect analysts in their pursuit of conclusions based on incomplete data. This presentation will concentrate on the dangers of "faulty perception" noting that cultural bias can often mislead an analyst to an erroneous conclusion.

Foreign Military Design Philosophies

Using foreign military hardware design philosophies, the lecture will identify areas where U.S. and foreign concepts differ or agree, noting that cultural bias can often mislead an analyst to an erroneous conclusion. The lecture will also show that other countries use different approaches to engineering because of their historical background, technological capabilities, societal values, missions, and threat perceptions.

National Priorities and the Military

A discussion about national priorities and the influence of economics on a country's political and military power. The lecturer will address the value of economic intelligence in identifying national goals and objectives, and how this data can help in forecasting military developments. During the presentation, the speaker will identify internal and external influences on government programs, and how these influences can affect military posture and structure. The talk will also cover common characteristics which promote the economic viability of the state; and how these characteristics contribute or limit industrial production. The lecture will conclude by showing how annual government budgets can aid analysts in differentiating a country's national priorities from political rhetoric, and how the budgetary process can aid in forecasting future military programs.

Intelligence Forecasting

A discussion of the premise that all conclusions reached in the Intelligence analysis process involve an element of uncertainty or doubt. This lecture will address the characteristics of evidence, and why Intelligence data can often appear conflicting or vague. This will transition into a discussion about probabilities in Intelligence analysis, and the difficulties an analyst sometimes faces when presenting an estimate to a decision-maker.

Drawing Conclusions and Disseminating a Product

The Influence of Technology Transfer on Intelligence Analysis

A survey of various methods which the countries can employ to obtain technology, either legally or illegally. This presentation will also examine the impact that technology transfer has on assessing military capabilities and future military potential, and the current efforts which the United States is undertaking to stem the technology flow.